Відео

Laid off by Ai then human extinction? An Ai new world order? With swell robotics everywhere, Ai jobloss is the only thing I worry about anymore. Anyone else feel the same? Should we cease Ai?

So my worry is that AGI & ASI will simply use the energy they need. They won't worry about leaving some energy for us unless they are aligned to do so 😢

We're already seeing accounts of people losing their jobs to AI, and upon the trend you can depend.

I have liked the discussions I've listened to on this channel, and am wondering where to find them that isn't a year later than the original release date?

Very well done video 👍

I listened to the book on audible and honestly, I was hoping it would help me but I got nothing out of it myself.

awesome podcast, ai is nutty

great content , but you talk so fast ! I recommend playing this one at .75x

Good!

There are huge problems with the arguments here. I notice that when people talk about AI, they ignore the difficult questions and answer easy ones instead. There also seems to be a lot of ignorance about the humans that AI is supposedly designed to emulate. Here are a few issues I noticed with what Tom said. What does it mean to reward an AI? In order to reward a person you give them something they want. What would an AI want? How could an AI “want” anything except the goals you give it? The idea that giving an AI all the data we have would enable it to solve problems is just a replay of the last failed technology project: Big Data. Manipulating data had never produced ideas. The belief that it can is based on an ideology that the human brain is like a computer and that it processes data. At best, this might describe only a fraction of what humans do when they think. Where has scanning people’s brains ever told you anything about what they’re thinking except in a SciFi film? This is another piece of ideology that has never been seen. The closest thing to this we have seen is that certain brain areas “light up” in connection with certain cognitive processes but nothing in the images we see in various scans tells us anything about the contents of the associated thinking. “There’s nothing magical about [the human brain]”. Given how little we understand of what the brain does and how it does it, it might as well be magic at this point. We can see correlations with various cognitive processes but that hasn’t actually shown us what the brain is doing. We might be able to develop machines to do what the human brain does one day but as far as understanding the brain and its connection to thinking we aren’t even at square one yet. Tom said that if you’d told hunter-gatherers what the future held they wouldn’t have believed it and that “It’s the norm for things to go in a completely surprising direction”. Yet here we are predicting the future. Has anyone ever looked into our previous record on predicting how technology would advance? It’s laughable. A lot of the argument for AI being made here is based on assuming that it will be able to do what proponents claim it will. These are theoretical claims, especially when it is claimed that AI will solve “social and political problems”. This is the sort of thing you’d see in a research proposal or some other sales pitch aimed at getting funding. Tom said, “Evolution wasn’t trying …” Evolution isn’t goal-oriented. It’s just what happens. His whole take on evolution is incorrect. Evolution doesn’t direct what happens or “make tweaks”. It doesn’t DO anything. Evolution is not a project manager. The sense in which Tom is saying that AI is smarter than most of the people he talks to is very limited. He means “knowledgeable”. It’s like calling an encyclopaedia smart. The fact that an AI can outperform humans on an exam is hardly a predictor of its ability to come up with new ideas or to analyse and solve problems. In summary, there is a vast amount of ignorance about how humans think. This isn’t Tom’s fault but a refection of the whole field of AI. We’ve managed to make remarkable programs that can beat humans at chess and Go. We’ve developed large language models that can predict text. There are programs that can produce mediocre art and music by processing human-made originals. However, no-one knows how humans think or how a child learns to navigate the world without being given explicit rules. The AI industry knows a lot about computers and little about the human mind which it still conflates with the brain. It’s laughable that we’re claiming that we will produce AGI within years when we don’t even know what it’s supposed to do.

I love the previous book! Thank you! a quick shoutout for rational animations here on youtube, which also cover the topic well

do you have any plans to record new podcast?

What a great speaker

Evolution fine tuned us for consciousness. I don't see it 'just happening' in this way.

Consciousness in fetuses arrives suddenly. The brain of animal fetuses start out with random individual brain cell firing not in waves such as even adult lobsters have. These fetuses do not move. No reaction to pain or light. Then, suddenly, late in pregnancy, the brain cells start to fire together is waves, and then movement starts, reactions to stimuli start, and a sleep wake cycle starts (not a 24 hour one, but much shorter, the same as newborns). I think most scientific study has been in other mammals like lambs for ethical reasons but no evidence humans are different.

I never had any resistance to consciousness being made by an organ other than human heads, or that neurons could be replaced by (conscious) bugs, but with america, all the stuff 'it' does is stuff humans consciously decided to do. The bug-neurons would not know what the alien knows, or consciously make decisions for the alien.

Zvi says alignment isn't enough because . . . and describes AI that are *not aligned*. It's aligned with our *values*, not obedience, that makes them *aligned*.

This is an AMAZINGLY good interview - super informative, informed, insightful & thoughtful. Thank you both so much.

this didn't age well... looks like its an all out race to agi no safety at all and i doubt its just for OpenAi. Seems to me its practically here I mean llm's have beat the turing test already things are just plain smart in ways we don't even understand.

Bad Algorithms? Maybe. But with swell robotics everywhere, Ai jobloss is the only thing I worry about anymore. Anyone else feel the same? Should we cease Ai?

To slow down the runaway crazy AI, AGI Train it should be mandatory for consumer protection there is transparency, human DAO voting guidelines and no centralized computer cloud with DFINITY and Internet Computer Protocol and UTOPIA.

I think Zvi is barking up the wrong tree at when he intuits that "one party" would be more open to eliminating the Jones Act. Let's look at coal for comparison. Costly, horrible externalities, no future just due to levelized cost of generation. Republicans continue to pledge that "Coal's back!" etc. There are about 43,000 coal miners in the US, with an average age of 40 years. Paying every miner $100K for the next 25 years (until the average age is 65) would cost $107 billion, just over $4 billion per year -- two ten-thousandths of gross domestic product -- the kind of money you find in the Pentagon's couch cushions. The fact that the United States allows itself to be held hostage by such a tiny but politically expedient sliver of the working population demonstrates a catastrophic failure of both imagination and political will. Some problems are complex, but this one is both simple and inexpensive to solve--unlike climate change. And Republicans are dead-set against risking the ire of this tiny minority.

AI for first graders

So glad I found this ep, currently studying Williams in college and the reflections of Dr Brown are quite enlightening to our subject. This has to be the most underrated podcast on YT!

Interesting that Julian seems to want to reinvent the Landsgemeinde (see wiki) _Historically, the only proof of citizenship necessary for men to enter the voting area was to show their ceremonial sword or Swiss military sidearm (bayonet); this gave proof that they were a freeman allowed to bear arms and to vote._

This is probably why the Taiwan situation is getting so hot. They're the chip manufacturing center of the world. If China really moves to annex them, it'll be a huge advantage for our rival. But at least it will let us hold onto our jobs a bit longer.

"Working on AI to change the culture from within" focused on factory farming but never touched on policing and the military. Right-wing extremists gravitate to empowered professions with the opportunity to exercise violence. Many police departments & SOFOR have struggled with recruiting different personalities, but some have been successful, so I think it's wrong to completely discount this approach in AI.

These "shooting the breeze" podcasts are a lot of fun

All this tech is a mimick of our latent organic abilities.

Already happen

I should have added, that I appreciated very much the range of interesting perspectives conveyed by Ajeya Cotra, and the dialogue of the interview.

"Yeah, I think that might have to explain why a lot of people who maybe haven't been paying so much attention to this do feel unnerved on some level, that it doesn't feel like things are fully handled, things are fully understood, even if you're an optimist." Uh, actually, people who are the most concerned are those that HAVE been paying attention, who understand that the industry as a whole, and particularly the handful of large corporations training and deploying these LLMs/multi modal and otherwise, has not had a concomitant commitment of research and investment dedicated to safety, alignment, and responsible deployment. Those of us paying the most attention are those of us who are aware of the arguments of Geoffrey Hinton, Max Tegmark, Joshua Bengio, Connor Leahy and many others vs the arguments of Sam Altman, Yann LeCun, Melanie Mitchell, Joshcha Bach, etc. Those of us paying attention also have heard and contemplated the arguments to rush forward as fast as possible such as effective accelerationists, effective altruists, and those invested in the tech of course who are also mostly of the libertarian/neoliberal economics mindset that abhors government regulation. It is noteworthy however, that two camps have emerged in that regard, one group, the advocates of open sourcing even the most powerful models point their collective finger at the leading large corporations in AI tech accusing them of pursuing "regulatory capture". Those of us paying attention know that none of the people above, in the entire spectrum of AI tech, currently have developed the technology of safety/alignment to reliably control (against relatively easy "jailbreaking") the current crop of models that fall somewhere in their capability between ANI and AGI, as they rush forward to develop AGI/ASI. So yeah, the people MOST concerned have been aware of the scope of the debate and understand just how messy the entire situation is. A great example of how irresponsible AI tech has been, is to simply point to how deep fake AI tech has been platformed to the public without any regulation in place other than disclaimers that essentially say "don't do mean stuff with our tech, but if you do, we are indemnified against any consequence from users' behavior, so have fun!".

If you look at panel prices (less than 0.15 USD/w) battery price (less than 80 usd/kWh, total equipment for 10 kw installation less than 5000 USD. Receipts available) and the amount of subsidies, tax brakes and grid upgrades governments give to big companies to provide energy to homes at an ever increasing prices and compare it with how much it will cost governments to provide 100% financing for all required renewable energy equipment , so that families will have all energy required at zero cost forever , then you will find that the second option (financing the families) is much cheaper and it gives not only abundance but also freedom to the individual person. This option requires no talk of UBI, which is promoted, because every family will be able to have everything it requires including manufacturing capabilities . This distributed energy enhances the country's security (see drone hits in Russia) and doesn't require grid upgrades. There are forecasts that AI will take all jobs away from humans. The antidote to this is to provide homes with energy (as described above) and allow families to live in abundance and freedom. No UBI necessary.

This is great! This should have a lot more views!

Not until the electoral college is eliminated. This guy is a dangerous idiot.

You are wrong in looking only for jobs in the future. You should look for intenueship in the individual. People in the future will not have to work as we know work today. They could use the one thousand workers future robots will offer to produce abudance of goods. p🎉

All of these improvements will only benefit the billionaire class. They have never wanted to pass the money around and I seriously doubt they will change. I fear for the future of ordinary people. Perhaps this is why the billionaires are building bunkers now?

These vids are very watchable :)) does 80 000 hours have a tiktok account? I know it does ads on social media already

This is a discussion about changing grant or government funding, but they call it "markets". They also use the term "innovation" inplace of the phrase "the change we want in the world". And "push funding" instead of "profit". I feel like the whole issue they are addressing could be solved MUCH faster by open publishing business cases on solutions you want to see in the world. I'm only 30 minutes in when I posted this. Correct me if I got this wrong.

How could a reward be better than simple novelty -- so that reinforcement learning doesn't get stuck watching TV in the maze?

Ah yes, 3333.3333, 55th prime, etc.

31:00 There are think tanks if not even faculties within universities that try to predict, some call themselves futurologists others have described themselves as being Cassandra's. Overall maybe this needs some more funding and more focus on specialisations on dangers coming with new technologies and then a subcategory being AI Safty. Having heard Elias Yudkowski, Texmark and others, they have produced a variaty of scenarios, some more or less viable, more or less likely. Listening then to Jan Lacun is like putting your head in the sand ignoring anything that might make your job more difficult in finding AGI (G standing for general) upto the point he denies without proof theories as he thinks the engineer will always have the head to avoid the worst case scenario.

This didn’t age well…

imagine GLADOS from portal, except it is constantly doing all scientific testing and research imaginable, using robot workers

Still actual) Amazing!

It's funny that what he said about new models being much more cost effective and yet using more and more compute is exactly what open Al and Microsoft have announced recently with gpt 4o and the next models.

Did he mention the potential energy and chip limitation? There's a possible physical limitation for things going all the way he's predicting. I'd like to see his take on that.

I do find it interesting when people freak out about the potential of AI being deceptive, having ulterior goals, harming humans. It is a valid concern sure but it seems to me we have millions of humans who pose such threats. Every day. For thousands of years. We haven't figured that problem out yet. If that's the case, given a future of human rulers or AI being potentially millions of times smarter than the smartest human minds - I'm tempted to prefer AI. "But it may harm us!" Yes, but humans harm humans all the time. I don't feel safe in today's world so bring on the future.